Amidst the ongoing discussions surrounding the finalization of South Africa’s 2023 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2023), it is imperative for South Africa’s business elite, media, and various political parties to reassess their positions and understanding of the consequences of an anticipated move away from coal.

The warnings of many engineers, economists and other experts within the energy sector that South Africa won’t easily walk away from coal has already played itself out in the political scene in 2023 when the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe, a former coal miner, called the just energy transition that advocated for a rapid transition towards “renewable” energy only, “a foreign concept”. In response to his stance, the ANC led government, presumably under the pressure of international investors and the media, created a new portfolio titled Minister of Electricity that was headed by Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa who holds a qualification in civil engineering. He initially recommitted to the “green transition”, but shortly after the closure of the Komati Coal Power Station, he also joined the chorus and started speaking out against “the end of coal”. The blowback was felt throughout the corridors of power to the extent that even the Presidential Climate Commission, a body that is stacked with conflicted environmental lobbyists, who crafted the policies that advocate for the closure of the coal-fired power station, admitted that “little attempt had been made to consult with workers”.

The Democratic Alliance, the official opposition who is South Africa’s de facto green party, did not fare better. Despite having an official position “against coal”, the DA mayor of Pretoria, Mr. Cilliers Brink’s spokesperson, Sipho Stuurman, recently announced that the city intends on bringing back the 300 MW Rooiwal Coal Power Station for at least 10 years. Brink’s revelation came only a few months after the announcement of his 2050 “Net Zero” Strategy that presumably foresees “the end of coal”. 

Even though critics have accused the ANC leadership of “fake news”, and exaggerating the situation, it’s worth reflecting on both the above events and ask why it is so difficult for South Africa to simply “walk away from coal”. Interestingly, as South Africa’s government utility Eskom faces challenges to keep the lights on, a pragmatic energy realism has emerged and for the first time since the end of Apartheid, the policy deviations do not appear to fall on traditional party lines. They are rather reminiscent of historical regional rivalries between the two power geographic centres, the “Transvaal”, and the “Cape Colony”. Taking the risk of generalization, the former has often been more pragmatic and sympathetic to the challenges of Africa, while the latter, in line with its historical traditions, appears to be “the joiners” that are more prepared to bow to the “anti-coal” dogma of the “Global North”.

Supporting coal is often viewed as a heretical form of “denial” of climatic changes and an “ignorance” of the “toxic” poisons spewing from coal plants. However, the reality is that (a) modern coal is not what it used to be (b) surface mined coal releases fewer green-house gas emissions than LNG imports, over the entire supply chain and (c) economic trade-offs and not ideological purism should be what drives the decision making in developing nations such as South Africa.